The Market Still Says Trump

If the stock market is the most unbiased (proxy) election poll, then it appears to be telling us, even now, that Trump will retake the White House. Biden’s team is in favor of a federal lockdown (the ‘long dark winter’), higher income and business taxes, and a costly Green New Deal that will be harmful to the US manufacturing and transportation sectors. He advocates open borders and amnesty for 12 million new laborers who will be cheap to pay but who will add to tax costs. Also wealth taxes, rejoining and handing payments along with some degree of sovereignty to multinationals like the UN, and reshaping the balance of our tripartite federal government so that it will ensure a permanent one-party state that criminalizes dissent. Only a charlatan could claim that any of this could be favorable for stock prices. Yet the market has rallied 7.6% since Nov. 3, and was up 1.12% today. If the rally really is due to the announcement of a COVID vaccine, it is probably erroneously based on the expectation that it will lead to a lifting of the economic lockdown.

No matter what the media and many others say, the election is not over until the states cast their electoral college votes on December 14 or until Trump resigns. And once the lawsuits from the Trump campaign and from private citizens are filed, the election moves into the court system. Quite a fracas ! – and there may yet be a number of twists and turns to-come. But for now, the market is not showing any apprehension of a turn towards socialism and a newly-hostile climate for business and the wealthy. Yet even if Trump wins and all the collectivist schemes of indebted states are stymied here in the US, there are still major headwinds in-store. More on that later. For now, the lockdowns are becoming more draconian, and the ‘Great Reset’ countdown is set for May. However more people (ex-pawns ?) are starting to gain awareness of, and resist these dictats:

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