Stocks are up today (but so are treasuries). It appears that many investors are anticipating a Trump win, however there is no way that there will be a clean result with no aftermath this time. 70% of Americans are expecting social disruption and violence; it is clear to many of them that most of it that has occurred this year has been politically motivated and enabled. The degree of political division in the country now is sharp and deep, causing even the dissolution of longterm friendships and marriages.
It is also unclear how a re-elected Trump would be able to proceed with his agenda. As I discussed in my previous post, it appears that ‘globalism’ is a real force to be reckoned with, as it is now being pushed in a Marxist form attractive to indebted governments since it will allow them to collectivize and shoo-away the bankruptcies that they have inflicted on their nations. Abruptly taking down their economies via the with the COVID Flu d’ Etat now appears likely to be a tactic for imposing such one-world super-statism in a stepwise manner. Because Trump’s “America First” stance is their biggest obstacle, he will remain a target of continued attack. Domestically, the corruption of the Biden family and of the Obama administration (watch ‘The Plot Against The President’ on Amazon…) has brought the attacks to neuter Trump to a new Zenith as these people fear that this time his administration may actually bring indictments and prosecutions to them. I hope so, not because of the people involved, but because we will basically live in a very powerful Banana Republic if accountability is not restored to our Machiavellian government agents who have turned all their techniques of disinformation and delusion inward against the American people. I’m not holding my breath, though.
The political division in America was already a disadvantage even before it reached its current level. Switches between conservative and liberal administrations have come with flips in taxation and regulatory regimes that have forced businesses to restructure their plans, their capital deployments, and offshore or onshore their manufacturing operations in order to remain competitive. Having to do this every 8 years substantially disadvantages them relative to foreign businesses, and makes long term growth planning very difficult. A member of the Iranian government recently chortled that “America is now destroying itself “. We may avoid a power grab that flips the country left for generations via moves like court packing, adding senate seats, eliminating the electoral college, and giving immediate amnesty to 11 million now-illegal future democratic voters. However, there is nothing to assure that western preeminence and values will decline more than the the efforts to undo them that reside in the ongoing discord within western societies. It will assure that China becomes the new dominant superpower in 1-2 decades – even without Biden’s help.