Private Wave Setup

Goebbels said that “If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the state can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.” In his then-fictional novel Orwell discarded this notion that contradictory evidence must be concealed: “the state (and the media) will tell you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears.” This is now our current reality.

Does any rational person want Joe Biden to sit down to negotiate behind closed doors with the leaders of Russia, China, Iran, or North Korea ? We are watching (when we can get a peek into his basement) an already substantially impaired man mentally deteriorate in front of our eyes with the presidential election only 3 months away, and not one national figure is shouting “WTH ?!”. The fact that the media and the democrats assure us that Biden has what it takes to handle the domestic economic and social crises underway, as well as the destructive leftists he is now allied with, is even more frightening than the extreme policies (green new deal economy, open borders, …) that he has embraced.

The soberly-made claim by democrat leaders that there have been only “peaceful protests” in the 400 cities that have been torched and laid siege is pure Orwellian surrealism. The White House press spokeswoman replayed scenes of the urban violence and destruction for the reporters at her press briefing merely to obviate to American viewers the press’ egregious and delusional affinity with the protestors and the governors who have been excusing them. She knew the reporters had already seen all the footage.

Then there is the incident that started the deployments of all the BLM/ANTIFA garrisons: The George Floyd autopsy report states “No life-threatening injuries were identified. There was no contusion nor hemorrhage in his neck muscles. No facial, oral mucosal, nor conjunctival petechiae, no broken esophageal cartilage, nor hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy in his brain”. He had Methamphetamine as well as a lethally toxic level of Fentanyl in his bloodstream. You wont find these autopsy results reported in the press, but they will be presented as evidence in court. The body cam footage of the incident shows Floyd in a semi-coherent, panicked state in which his legs buckle under him once. He says “I cant breathe” a couple of times while walking around, several minutes before he got pinned to the ground. We saw this footage only because it was leaked. The Minnesota AG said he withheld it because “I believe in full transparency and disclosure, but I didn’t want (this evidence) to impede my prosecution of the officers involved.” As our cities were burning, more people were dying, and BLM was becoming a major political party.

On the COVID side, we have Eric Garcetti shutting off the water and power to the homes in LA where ‘unacceptably large’ gatherings have been reported to occur. This will render the residents of those homes unable to refrigerate food, wash their hands, bodies, and dishes, brush their teeth, and flush the toilet. That all seems very detrimental to COVID hygiene, but they can still wear their masks and its all for the public good somehow. USD law professor Dov Fox said: “States can compel vaccinations by limiting access to schools, services, or jobs if people don’t get vaccinated. Or it can force them to pay a fine or even lock them up in jail.” This is not the America that we’ve known heretofore, and where you locate yourself in it now may have a large impact upon the rights, freedoms, and assets you get to keep.

I wrote earlier that we are facing the first and biggest international sovereign debt crisis in history. When governments run out of money and false promises, they do not admit it – they become tyrannical. So along with the other social (and socially-engineered) pressures that are driving social breakdown now, socialist-oriented government leaders are doing harmful things to keep themself in power in America and elsewhere.

Globally, the debt-to-GDP ratio is 322%. Amongst G-7 nations, the numbers are: United States: 106%, Germany: 61%, Japan: 196%, The United Kingdom: 85%, Canada: 89%, France: 98%. China has more of a debt load that it allows the world to see. Because it has a command economy in which the government determines production, investment, prices, and incomes, its government owns most of the large corporations, called state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Since SOEs are considered as companies and not the government itself, China doesn’t have to report their debt loads in its official debt data. It uses this fact to lower its federal debt-to-GDP ratio, which is actually north of 100%.

Readers of this blog may recall that I mentioned a move to electronic money, further taxation and regulation of enterprises and people, and grabs for more power as moves that the government will likely make. Also that as all this causes a loss of investor confidence in government, there will be a large shift of capital away from public and debt investments to private and hard assets which will lift equities and tangibles. Although the EU is doing things to prevent capital from fleeing the continent to America, this shift can still occur with big effect: the amount of money in the US Treasury market is over ten times that in the US equity market. Keeping some ‘dry powder’, avoiding federal debt with any appreciable duration, and taking some commodity exposure is a prudent posture now. The mayhem that I mentioned in the first 5 paragraphs above should accelerate the loss of confidence in government. This shift in confidence is what will drive capital from public parking places to private ones and it should become evident in 2021. There will likely be a rise in the market if Trump is reelected, then later in the year and into 2022, possibly after a modest correction we will likely see it resume.

As for the non-financial risks that have become so real in these past few months, most of the remediative actions are obvious and underway: If you live in an urban area in a blue state, move to someplace more like Utah, Idaho, Florida, or Texas (or Ecuador). And if you have skills that you can offer as services online from anywhere, consider doing it. The Proshares online retail ETF (ONLN) has doubled since the bottom of the March correction. Employment for tech workers has not recovered since the crash in March. Layoffs are moving up the food chain, now hitting corporate middle-managers, a work role which has been quite secure for MBAs. We (in CA) are 3 weeks into the second COVID lockdown and once again we will have to wait for a couple months to see just what it does to the GDP and employment numbers.

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